Sleepwalking Into a Nightmare

By Rosemary Dodd

Trump or Biden – The Outlook is Bleak. But it’s Even Worse if DSA Continues Without a Bold, Visible, Socialist Set of Demands

When I last wrote an article looking to the future in the US (“Sustained Pessimism,” May 2023), I wrote of the malaise and stagnation that has permeated society in general and the left in particular. After the boost in worker and socialist organizing starting with the Occupy movement and culminating in Bernie Sanders’ two presidential runs and the explosive growth of DSA, there has been a lull in social movements under Biden and a slow-burn crisis in DSA. Now, at the dawn of 2024, I’m desperately searching for a new angle, a new way to read the tea leaves and see a bright (near) future.

But as Marxists, it’s essential to deal with reality as it is and not as we wish it to be, and the reality is bleak: US-backed genocide possibly careening towards a regional war in the Middle East; a presidential rematch between two ossified political relics; record carbon emissions; and a left that is as yet unable to offer a viable alternative to the millions dissatisfied with the status quo.

As important as it is to be objective, it’s equally vital not to lose sight of the possible. The objective situation is riper than ever for revolutionary organizing, and the left is on better footing than it was pre-Occupy, but without a proactive shift in strategy, without learning the lessons of the recent past and taking a sharp turn away from tailing the Democratic Party, socialists will have no way to build on the explosive movements sure to come.

A Crisis of Populism

In this period of polarization and decaying trust in institutions, the left is demoralized and on the back foot. The options before us are a Trump come-back or a second Biden term that would likely be a continuation of the centrist, pro-capitalist policies he is employing now, not his Keynesian-style beginnings. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party co-opts our movements and fundraises on abortion rights issues while trying to keep labor and social organizations in check. 

However, this is not just an issue in the US: the left internationally is struggling as well.  

The crisis of 2008 produced a vacuum: the narrative of the ruling class that trickle down economics and neoliberalism would magically develop society indefinitely was shattered when the Lehman Brothers Bank closed its doors. A chasm opened up between the major capitalist parties and the masses, between ruling institutions and popular demands for a better future. Belief in the American Dream – the promise that hard work will pay off, that future generations will be better off than the ones before – was dead or dying, leaving a huge vacuum of legitimacy for the capitalist system. Neoliberalism as an ideology was in tatters, discredited in the eyes of the masses. However, for the capitalists and their commentators, there was not a new narrative that could convince working-class people that capitalism would work for them.

In this vacuum of credible alternatives, without a viable socialist force, there has been a rise of left-wing and far-right populism. 

These are not symmetrical developments. Far-right populism is based on mobilizing the worst prejudices and sentiments created by capitalist society: homo- and transphobia, misogyny, anti-immigrant and Islamophobic sentiments, and nationalism. 

Left-wing populism – as seen in Bernie Sanders’ campaigns, the Squad (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her colleagues), the rise of parties like Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain, the summer of Corbyn in the UK, and the hopes for a pink tide in Latin America – reflected a completely different phenomenon. People were groping towards anti-capitalist policies, but were starting from a very low level of class consciousness, leading to the elevation of leaders who were not prepared to organize the working-class to break with capitalism. However, these developments heightened the debates about what’s needed for working-class and oppressed people’s liberation and offered key organizing opportunities. In the US they also led to a revival of labor – albeit from a very low level.

The common feature of populism is that it expresses to some extent the sentiments and hopes of the masses, while being incapable of transforming those hopes into a real alternative. 

The right-wing populism of Trump, Bolsonaro, and how Brexit was executed in many ways left its supporters disappointed because it did not lead to the revival in living standards politicians promised for a certain sub-section of the working class (usually at the expense of other groups). But as long as there is no real alternative, the right can rebuild. The most dangerous development with the impasse of right-wing populism is that it leads to more sustained organizing that enables the development of future fascist forces.

The dead-end of left-wing populism is also not absolute, as evidenced by Lula’s comeback in Brazil. However, since the peak of the Covid crisis, a much darker mood and a grim outlook is dominant on the left, which was not able to develop revolutionary-socialist policies on a much larger scale – the scale needed to for example run a government like Syriza in Greece without capitulation and surrender.

Eroding Trust in US Institutions

Another expression of the chasm between people’s expectations and reality is the undermining of the authority of capitalist institutions, from Congress to the Supreme Court, from schools to mainstream media, from traditional churches to the presidency.

This is perfectly distilled in the US presidential elections: two historically unpopular candidates are overwhelmingly likely to be the top options for US voters in November. Sound familiar? What was true four years ago is even more true today: according to a November 2023 Monmouth poll, 69% of voters are not enthusiastic about Biden vs.Trump.

Speaking right before the January 2024 Iowa caucuses, Doug Gross, a Republican lawyer, said, “You get the feeling in Iowa right now that we’re sleepwalking into a nightmare and there’s nothing we can do about it. In Iowa, life isn’t lived in extremes, except the weather, and yet they still feel this dramatic sense of inevitable doom” (New York Times). This sense of doom is keenly felt on both sides of the political spectrum.

Despite a relatively strong start to his presidency with the American Rescue Plan, Biden is hemorrhaging support. According to 538, a website that aggregates opinion polls, his approval rating is at 39%, far lower than presidents who have won a second term historically. The Covid-era neo-Keynesian social programs under Trump and Biden that pulled millions out of poverty have been slowly dismantled or allowed to die a quiet death by Biden’s administration, eating away at any affirmative case for Biden 2.0. Additionally, his enabling of the genocide in Gaza – even going around Congress to sell munitions to Israel – is wildly out of step with the Democratic base, 76% of whom want a ceasefire (Data For Progress).

Biden is also losing ground with key demographics. Young people especially are disgusted, and for the first time favor Trump over Biden 37 to 33% after overwhelmingly supporting Biden in 2020. Hispanics now favor Trump 39 to 34%, and Black voters have dropped their support for Biden from 87% in 2020 to just 63%. Black voters aren’t abandoning the Democrats for Trump: one in five say they plan to support a third party candidate (USA Today).

What’s the only hope for Democrats in November? The Republicans.

Young people turning towards Trump is illustrative of how the weakness of Biden and the Democrats enables the far-right and delegitimizes traditional politics and institutions. There’s a huge gap between what Biden is offering and the expectations of the base of the Democratic Party. Party elites, including Obama, are panicking at Biden’s increasingly bleak reelection chances.

What’s the only hope for Democrats in November? The Republicans. In lieu of a platform for what they could accomplish for people, Democrats plan to win with a two-pronged strategy: January 6 and abortion. As Biden said at a January 5th campaign event, “Democracy is on the ballot. Your freedom is on the ballot.” When it comes to abortion, they’re not promising to actually reinstate rights, but correctly pointing out that Republicans will further restrict them. Based on Democrats’ higher-than-expected performance in the midterms, this strategy might just work.

Trump is also limping into this race: 52% of voters have a negative opinion of him (fivethirtyeight.com). By and large, people in the US are disgusted with January 6, and Trump’s legal issues, while a rallying point for his base, are likely to turn off independents, especially if he is convicted of a crime. Although current polling suggests Trump will narrowly win, so many things could happen before the election that this race remains a toss up.

Critically, there’s a surge in interest in third party candidates. Political eclectic Robert Kennedy Jr. is garnering a whooping 21% of voters who say they will either definitely or probably vote for him, the highest support for a third party candidate since Ross Perot. Despite running weak campaigns, Jill Stein and Cornel West are polling at 3% each (for context, Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins received 0.26% of the vote in 2020).

Of course, these numbers will likely be suppressed in the actual election as voters hold their noses and vote to block their least favorite candidate. But this hunger for an alternative is unprecedented in recent history and needs to be a lesson for the left: if weak and ideologically incoherent campaigns are garnering approximately a fourth of support from the electorate, there’s a major opening for a serious left alternative in politics. As the weakness and conservatism of the Democrats paves the way for another potential Trump administration, it’s more urgent than ever to build a democratic socialist party. Eroding trust in capitalist institutions can be a boon for revolutionary organizing, but only if the left can win disaffected workers to our banner.

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Election Shenanigans

Bourgeois democracy in the US, already a far cry from being truly democratic, seems determined to further delegitimize itself this election cycle. The Florida Democratic Party has canceled its primary altogether despite multiple candidates running against Biden. Likewise, Biden with be the only option in the Democratic primaries in Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

There is also an effort to remove Trump from the Republican primary ballot over his role in the January 6 riot, paving the way for him to be taken off the general election ballot in November. Some on the left have welcomed this move, with Cori Bush tweeting, “The former white supremacist-in-chief has no place near the Oval Office, or any office for that matter.” 

This position is understandable: why not use every tool in our arsenal to prevent a racist reactionary from returning to office? However, using legalistic tools to remove a candidate from the ballot would be a gift for the far-right, a fast track to radicalization for Trump’s base and would present a significant opportunity for far-right and neo-fascist forces to build a far larger militant base of support.

The task is to politically defeat Trump and right-wing populism, and relying on the capitalist state to remove undesirable candidates from the ballot would not only be used against left-wing candidates in the future, it would also make it impossible for the left to peel away some sections of Trump supporters with a working-class platform. The Supreme Court has agreed to rule on the matter and will almost certainly allow Trump back onto the ballot. But DSA and our electeds should not align ourselves with this counterproductive strategy.

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Bad or Worse?

What will the next administration look like? At the core of the answer is the inability of capitalism to offer a better future. Climate disasters are starting to have devastating impacts on human lives and the economy that will only escalate – it is now a question of degree. Capitalist politicians pat themselves on the back about passing modest climate legislation, but 2023 was the highest year for global carbon emissions on record (Stanford).

When it comes to the economy, Biden has achieved something closer to a “soft landing” than I predicted in “Sustained Pessimism.” Inflation has slowed and the economy has so far not fallen into recession. However, living standards for workers and the middle class have been eroded, and key aspects of cost of living continue to grow significantly. Housing is a key area of concern: according to real estate data provider ATTOM, as of September 2023 the median price of single family residences have become less affordable (when compared to wages) in 99 percent of the counties analyzed. With basics like housing and food still breaking the bank for many working-class people, it’s not surprising that 64 percent disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy (CBS).

Additionally, the capitalist economy is weighed down by huge financial bubbles – similar in size or bigger than before 2008. The best case scenario is sluggish growth, while the devastation of the environment, the anarchy of capitalism, and imperialist wars lay the groundwork for future brutal crises. 

Despite this economic outlook, Biden’s lack of campaign promises suggests that we’ll see more of the past two years, with few of the social programs and progressive executive orders of his early presidency.

But what would Trump round two look like? Major liberal outlets run with sensational headlines about the “end of democracy” and “dictatorship,” but these warnings are nothing new and, while horrible things did happen during Trump’s first term, none of the most dire warnings came to pass. But could this be a case of the establishment media that cried wolf? Bernie Sanders has said that a Trump victory would mean “the end of … functional democracy,” and there are reasons to believe Trump may have further radicalized in the intervening years (The Guardian).

More likely than an authoritarian coup is a continuation of Trump’s anti-worker, pro-billionaire agenda.

During his first term, Trump was successfully blocked on key aspects of his agenda by the so-called deep state and very well may have learned the lesson to appoint an even more radical Administration in the future. And as futile as January 6 was, it was an attempt to remain in power by a losing candidate, a bridge crossed that changed Trump and his supporters. Notably, he has also ramped up attacks on the left, going after “Marxists” and “communists.”

More likely than an authoritarian coup, however, is a continuation of his anti-worker, pro-billionaire agenda. For instance, replacing Biden’s relatively pro-worker NLRB with billionaire class lackeys will empower corporations like Starbucks and Amazon to quash their fledgling unions.

On foreign policy, while it might be difficult to imagine a president more accommodating towards Israel than Biden, Trump would likely be worse. He has a history of complete support for Israel (moving the US embassy to Jerusalem) and disdain for Palestinian lives (blocking $200 in aid for Gaza in 2018). Recently he has said that he would reject refugees from Gaza and that this war needs to “play out” (The Hill). Trump is also known for stoking both Islamophobia and antisemitism, which are already on the rise since October 7.

However, the most radical part of Trump’s agenda will likely be on immigration. Despite criticizing Trump’s immigration policies on the campaign trail, Biden has largely left them in place for Trump to build on in the future. In truly Hitler-esque fashion, Trump has insisted multiple times that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.” If elected again, Trump is likely to more effectively go after immigrants, all while stoking a culture war blaming them for the woes of American workers.

Under Trump 1.0, the left grew and DSA exploded in membership and activity. This is not guaranteed for a second Trump term.

Under Trump 1.0, the left grew and DSA exploded in membership and activity. This is not guaranteed for a second Trump term. The main question is if the left has the analysis, answers, and slogans to be bold in its opposition. During the first Trump years, the left went on the offense with bold calls for Medicare for All, student debt cancellation, a Green New Deal, and a political revolution against the billionaire class. A demoralized, timid left that is not offering an alternative to capitalist policies will not be able to attract the numbers necessary to fight back against Trump on the scale of 2016 to 2020. But it is not too late to offer another way forward.  

Reproductive Rights

Despite the stripping away of abortion rights with the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, we have not yet seen a new mass movement on the scale of the Women’s Liberation Movement. That doesn’t mean there’s not ample potential for such a movement to erupt in the future: there’s a simmering anger in society that’s amplified with every new restriction, every new viral story about young rape victims forced to give birth, or pregnant people forced to carry unviable pregnancies to term at great risk to their lives. The abortion issue has resulted in the Democrats outperforming expectations in the midterms and may yet be a saving grace for Biden in November.

Due to a woeful lack of leadership from feminist organizations like Planned Parenthood and the limitations of newer organizations like the Women’s March, this rage has not yet manifested in the kind of coordinated political action that would force the ruling class to reinstate abortion rights. However, political battles on the state level in the form of ballot initiatives show the vast potential this issue has to activate people, particularly women. DSA chapters have been heavily involved in many of these ballot initiatives. However, DSA nationally has not yet jumped into the fray. 

The TRBACC initiative – passed at the August Convention and intended to provide a unified lead to the organization on abortion and trans rights – has been repeatedly delayed. However, it has now opened up to allow members to join the discussions more directly and is developing its next steps. Read our latest report from TRBACC here.

Movement Lessons Unlearned

As the country is gripped by another presidential cycle, DSA so far has no sufficient answer for workers wondering how to engage in this bleak political situation. Prominent DSA electeds, like AOC and Cori Bush, as well as local DSA candidates, will mostly uncritically endorse Biden. Without a clear, independent approach, DSA will be sidelined in the coming year. 

In August, the DSA Convention voted to create a commission tasked with making proposals on how to approach the 2024 elections, but as of the time we’re going to print, they have not come out with anything. To read more on potential ways DSA should engage in the elections, see our articles from the Reform & Revolution magazine #14.

DSA went into the August 2023 Convention in a state of decline. Delegates elected a new, more left-leaning National Political Committee (NPC), which was a step in the right direction. However, the staff-driven, non-campaigning state of the organization has remained, with changes here and there but no fundamentally new direction. The resignation of 12-year National Director Maria Svart offers an opportunity for the left majority on the NPC to steer the organization away from tailing the Democrats – either by hiring someone new or filling the roles of the National Director themselves. 

The eruption of the Palestine solidarity movement has raised DSA’s profile on the left and in the mass media. Chapters across the country have in some cases done remarkable work organizing coalitions, connecting labor, and engaging in powerful protests. Compared to the rest of Biden’s time in office, more members have been drawn into DSA, though in Maria Svart’s resignation letter she wrote, “Hundreds of  members join each month, but more members leave or let their dues lapse.”

There has been a lack of political or organizational leadership from DSA nationally.

Although there are encouraging aspects to DSA’s involvement in this movement, there has been a lack of political or organizational leadership from DSA nationally. While our national leadership has put out statements and created a webpage encouraging members to call their Congressional representatives to demand a ceasefire, it could be doing so much more: sending out model leaflet and picket designs to chapters; creating coalitions with unions and other organizations; organizing national days of action and public meetings. This inaction is the result of inertia, a low imagination for what’s possible or desirable from a strong national leadership, but the new left-wing majority of the NPC could work to change this.

While DSA is so far not playing the role that is needed and possible, the situation in Gaza is changing the way an entire generation sees Israel-Palestine and US foreign policy. Tens of thousands of newly activated people have joined close to 2,000 protests as of the end of November 2023, showing that Palestinian liberation has moved into the mainstream. The Palestinian solidarity movement at large is characterized by a liberal, pacifist orientation with some ultraleft elements like the Party for Socialism and Liberation. Jewish Voice for Peace has done powerful work undercutting the idea that being pro-Palestinian and antisemitic go hand-in-hand. This movement will also create even more openings for the left to drive a wedge between youth and workers and the Democratic Party.

There’s also a sense of hopelessness and pessimism for many activists that you don’t typically see at the beginning of a mass movement: the idea that we can get a representative here and there to call for a ceasefire, but we’re powerless to stop our own tax money from paying for genocide.

Though so far on a smaller scale, the Palestinian liberation movement is the latest in a string of protests in the past decade: the Women’s Marches, the Black Lives Matter movement, and March for Our Lives, among others. These were some of the biggest protests in world history, and have trained a new generation of activists and provided opportunities for radicalization. But none of these movements have achieved substantial victories. There is a reluctance within DSA and the left to learn the lessons of the limitations of these movements, leading to a tailing of mass consciousness and a failure to boldly put forward a socialist strategy for victory.

These organic upsurges in society will continue, but protest alone without leadership and a winning strategy will continue to burn out into demoralization.

These organic upsurges in society will continue, sometimes at explosive new levels, but protest alone without leadership and a winning strategy will continue to burn out into demoralization with little to show for it in terms of concrete victories. However, even movements with no path to victory still have the power to shift consciousness, to leave radicalized ranks of youth and workers in their wake waiting for the right conditions to rise up again.