US Perspectives: Sustained Pessimism

By Rosemary Dodd

What’s in the Cards for the Left? More Malaise and Stagnation, or Can We Grow?

“We have never before seen this level of sustained pessimism in the 30-year-plus history of the poll,” NBC wrote on January 30. 71 percent of Americans believe “the country is headed in the wrong direction,” and more than two thirds have shared this view since October 2021.

Frequent mass shootings – a clear sign of societal rot caused by a hyper-individualist, militaristic culture – terrorize everything from parades, to schools, to queer bars. Substance use is sky-high, with drug overdoses stealing 100,306 lives during a 12-month period ending in April 2021, an increase of 28.5 percent from the year before. Environmental disasters caused by climate change and corporate negligence wreak havoc all over the country.

This malaise has seeped into the left as well, which is reflected in the lull in social movements: the last mass movement was the Black Lives Matter uprising in 2020. Previously, the two Bernie campaigns gave the left in general and DSA in particular a much-needed influx of energy and radicalizing youth and workers after the near complete collapse of the socialist movement after the fall of Stalinism and the Soviet Union.

However, while still numerically powerful with around 85,000 members, our organization lost around 15 percent of its membership and is struggling to find itself. While an upsurge in labor organizing is providing much-needed hope, so far union membership is still in decline.

To put this lull into context and discover what we can do about it, let’s take a look at some of the key features of today’s political landscape.

Recession and the “No Landing” Myth

Prediction: Zombie banks and corporations as well as debt and speculation bubbles pose an ongoing threat, especially with the Fed raising interest rates. In the best case, working-class people will face continuing stagnation. In the worst case, a deeper crisis will drag down living conditions even more.

Inflation is still eating into workers’ wages. At the end of January, the consumer price index was up 6.4 percent year over year, while wages have risen by just 5.1 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Between January 2022 and January 2023, real wages decreased by 0.9 percent. And inflation isn’t done with us yet.

Although the jobs market remains strong with unemployment at 3.6 percent, the Fed sees low unemployment as a problem, not a silver lining. The central bank wants higher unemployment and lower wages, and capitalist commentators complain that “ongoing labor shortages continue to keep upward pressure on wages” (CNN, February 24), blaming this – rather than record corporate profits – for inflation. The Fed policy, backed by the Biden Administration, is to use the blunt tool of rate hikes to increase unemployment and drive down already low wages.

Despite the Fed’s best efforts, we still aren’t in a recession by most metrics, and some outlets and commentators have suggested that we can avoid recession altogether. But economist David Rosenberg called “The ’no landing’ narrative … the biggest hoax Wall Street economists have peddled since ’global decoupling’ in 2008.” By “no landing,” he means “hopes that the Federal Reserve can crush inflation without causing growth to stagnate or unemployment to spike.”

Indeed, the idea that the Biden administration and the Central Bank can stop inflation with nothing but rate hikes while avoiding recession is absurd: as long as the government sits on its hands and allows Fed policy to be the only response to our economic woes, some degree of recession is overwhelmingly likely.

The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank reveals the fragility of the banking sector. Interest rate hikes were the catalyst, but it was years of reckless speculation by banks and investors based on the myth that money would be cheap forever that caused the collapse. The key driver for the bubbles of speculation that intermittently ravage the economy is the super-rich searching for profitable outlets for their obscene fortunes – in Marxist terms, the over-accumulation of capital. The bailout of SVB depositors, who are almost entirely venture capitalists and tech startups, shows that the government sees protecting the interests of such investors as vital to the economy. In contrast, even modest programs for poor and working people are deemed too expensive.

Escalating Attacks on our Bodies

Prediction: The right will continue to attack abortion and trans people, but this approach will backfire – mass anger will eventually bring people to the streets. We are on the verge of bigger uprisings that can win much more than what Roe v. Wade protected.

The far right and Republican Party have declared war on the bodily autonomy of women and trans people.

New laws put transgender people at risk of mis-demeanor charges just for existing in public.

Although Republicans have been attacking trans people for decades, this year is on track to be the worst. Tennessee has passed legislation that will ban drag shows in public or where they can be viewed by minors. This not only targets drag queen story hours, but also could put transgender people who are engaged in any kind of performance at risk of misdemeanor charges just for existing in public. 15 other states are considering similar legislation.

Trans healthcare is also being targeted across the country, and the situation is particularly dire for youth. This year 21 states are considering or have already passed measures that would impose civil penalties for parents and providers who provide gender-affirming care to minors, and bills in 11 states would criminalize it. This is particularly shocking since, according to the Movement Advancement Project, “prior to 2020, not a single state had introduced legislation to ban this medical care.”

Even adult care is being targeted in several states, including Tennessee, where a new bill would prevent TennCare (Medicaid) from entering contracts with companies that provide gender-affirming medical care for trans people. Bills like this reveal the conservative lie that this wave of legislation is about “protecting children” rather than attempting to legislate transgender people out of existence.

In addition to anti-trans legislation, there has been a flood of restrictions on abortion since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last summer. Currently, abortion is outright banned in 13 states and severely restricted in many more. With the overall lull in social movements, we haven’t yet seen anything close to a full-blown mobilization against the Supreme Court’s ruling or the slew of anti-abortion legislation being passed around the country. There have been protests of course – some of them quite large – but there’s been no escalation.

This is due in part to the failures of the big women’s organizations such as Planned Parenthood and NARAL to take a struggle-based approach. These organizations have prioritized fundraising and electing Democrats, who were in power when the anti-abortion Dobbs ruling came down and did nothing to stop it. A successful strategy would mean an escalating wave of protests organized around bold demands, including for Congress to codify abortion rights nationally. Such a movement would benefit enormously from bringing in organized labor.

DSA should be publicly calling on the large feminist organizations to adopt this strategy, seeking to do joint work wherever possible, while still criticizing their approach when warranted. However, despite doing good work on abortion in many local chapters, DSA has yet to adopt a nation-wide strategy for winning abortion and other rights relating to bodily autonomy and parenthood. DSA has the power to play a critical role in the formation and leadership of a new feminist movement, helping to take anger over abortion and attacks on trans people to the streets.

Trans people, women, and youth won’t accept the status quo much longer. The lack of leadership is a major obstacle, but as we’ve seen with the uprisings for abortion rights in Ireland and Argentina as well as the burgeoning youth movement for queer liberation and bodily autonomy, rage at the far-right attacks on our bodies will lead to explosive mass movements capable of winning much more than abortion legality. After all, it was a mass movement that won Roe in the first place.

Electoral Blues

Prediction: Biden is unlikely to get anything done for working people, giving Trump a second chance at the White House. It’s time for socialists to take concrete steps to win independence from the Democrats.

Biden is vanishingly unlikely to get anything done that will help regular people. During the COVID crisis, he was able to pass short-term policies such as the child tax credit that put money in the hands of working people. Since they were passed however, the government has been systematically rolling back these programs. Now the Democrats and Republicans are conspiring to kick up to 15 million people off their healthcare under “Medicaid unwinding.”

The Biden administration wasn’t able to pass lasting legislation in the form of Build Back Better (BBB), instead settling for the immensely watered down Inflation Reduction Act. Biden’s new budget contains social welfare spending and taxes on the wealthy, but if two Democrat-controlled chambers couldn’t pass BBB, the new budget is dead in the water with a Republican House.

If Biden and the Democrats were to put forward sufficiently inspiring proposals and organize working-class people to demand Republicans fall in line, this would broaden the horizons of what is possible even with a divided Congress. Of course, the Democrats won’t do this, but that doesn’t completely rule out new mass movements arising to force change on a variety of issues. Unfortunately, DSA members in Congress don’t promote an independent strategy. Therefore, the most likely scenario for Biden’s presidency is a continuation of the status quo and an increasingly dissatisfied public.

While still not certain, 2024 is shaping up to be the rematch no one wanted: Trump vs. Biden. On the Republican side, there’s a lot of wishful thinking on the part of certain segments of ruling-class Republicans that Trump could lose to Ron DeSantis, who puts a more composed, sane face on the same far-right policies. But this is still Trump’s race to lose. In some ways, Trump is posturing on the left, claiming to want to protect Medicare and Social Security and saying he would “easily” prevent World War III with Russia over Ukraine. This will increase his appeal to working-class people disappointed with the direction of the country. Additionally, his indictment and arrest has only given him a surge in Republican primary polls, though it’s yet to be seen if it will help him or hurt him in a general election.

On the Democratic side, just 37 percent of Democrats want Biden to run again, but so far only long-shot Marianne Williamson has thrown her hat into the Democratic primaries. It’s unlikely there will be a Democratic candidate DSA and the left can mobilize around, since Bernie has said he won’t run against Biden. Again, our DSA electeds aren’t posing a political alternative: while saying that she will closely watch the presidential primary as it unfolds, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told CNN last month she “would enthusiastically support [Biden] if he were the Democratic nominee.”

In 2020, there was a huge sense of relief when Trump was defeated, but now the far-right threat looms again, and, while not inevitable, a flailing economy and a lame duck Biden presidency opens the door for a Trump victory. We desperately need a new, independent left alternative to break free of this cycle where Democratic failures repeatedly empower the Republicans and far right.

What of the Left?

Prediction: DSA is in crisis and will continue to struggle to find its way for now, but radicalization continues and a new layer of activists – in DSA and in labor – is being trained to lead. Marxists have a huge opportunity to organize and galvanize a new core of activists.

In this messy situation, DSA is struggling to find its footing. This is in part due to the lull in social movements. However, while we can’t replace organic mass movements, we could be more of a factor in building them with centralized, bold campaigns. Another element is that there’s a Democratic president in the White House who was able to deliver some wins for regular people during the first part of his presidency.

DSA hasn’t yet been able to provide a viable alternative to the Democratic Party. Instead of being a major pole of attraction for workers and youth disenchanted with Biden, DSA is losing members, has low participation in many chapters, and a dysfunctional national leadership that’s proven itself incapable of working together or holding DSA electeds accountable.

Clearly, the left and our organization are struggling. A few years ago, it was easy to look through Bernie-colored glasses at the explosive growth of DSA and the broader radicalization happening in society and feel like anything was possible. But there was never going to be a straight line of growth to a mass workers’ party capable of achieving socialist revolution.

On the other hand, while we have nowhere near the mass socialist and workers parties that were present in many countries in the early 20th century, we are also much better off than we were any other time post-Cold War.

The Occupy movement, the Red Wave teachers’ strikes, the BLM movement: these have all trained a layer of activists who can take on future struggles. For example, many of the Starbucks workers behind the union drive cut their teeth on Bernie campaigns. There’s a new politicized layer of society that simply didn’t exist a few decades ago. The growth of DSA is the sharpest example of this, but it is also manifested in the revival of the labor movement. And while some activists are burning out or losing faith in the power of protest to achieve change, many more are waiting to be activated by the right struggle or campaign.

There have also been some important victories, particularly in labor. Although a recession and higher unemployment could take away some of the economic power workers have been using in recent battles, declining living standards will continue forcing workers into action. Workers got a self-esteem boost and increased expectations from concessions during COVID years. Even if a recession would slow down short-term organizing efforts, a new layer of militant labor activists is developing.

Additionally, while socialist organizers in many places might be struggling, socialism remains resurgent. How else can we explain the increase in DSA electeds on the local and national levels when our organization as a whole is stagnating? The same conditions that created previous movements are still there and in many cases are getting worse. Climate change, racism, economic inequality: all of these issues have the potential to inspire movements that can shake the foundations of society. Although it’s impossible to predict the timing, explosive struggles are inevitable. But this time, there’s a new generation ready to step in and lead. Let that thought buoy you through these difficult times.

Looking to the Future: Three Things We Can Do

1) Promote a Clear Alternative: A Socialist Rupture with Capitalism

Democratic socialists need to advocate for a clear vision of a different society – one based on democratic decisions over our lives, the economy, and the environment, as well as economic, racial, and gender justice. The different wings of the ruling class have proven themselves utterly incapable of freeing us from the economic and climate crises, and Wall Street liberalism is only driving people to search for far-right alternatives. Despite the lull in social movements, now is the time to boldly build support for fundamental change and a socialist world.

2) Relentlessly Pursue Political Independence

One of the main problems in DSA is the lack of independence from the Democratic Party. This spans from the behavior of our most prominent representatives in Congress to the way we present ourselves at most levels of our work. We need the ability to stand up to the Democratic Party machine, back up representatives who want to fight, and hold others accountable when they fall short. The discussions leading up to the DSA National Convention in Chicago this August 4 to 6 will be key to building support for a course change. You can find our resolutions, discussions, and more at ReformAndRevolution.org.

3) Build a Marxist Backbone Within DSA and the Labor Movement

While Marxists fight to build the broader forces of the socialist and labor movement, we also want to put forward a fighting, effective program within those movements, and that means being organized. In unions and workplaces, that could mean joining or forming reform caucuses or convincing your coworkers to join DSA and holding meetings on socialist strategy. Within DSA, that means engaging in open, comradely debate and pursuing initiatives to make DSA more democratic, independent, and powerful. Reform & Revolution is fighting to build the forces of Marxism to help win victories for the socialist and workers’ movement in the short-term, as well as prepare the forces for a socialist transformation of society. If you agree, join us.

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The Labor Upsurge: The Challenges Ahead

Prediction: There’s a Long Road Ahead to Rebuild Labor. However, a New Developing Generation of Labor Militants Will Shake Up Workplace Relations – and Labor Itself.

The past couple years have seemed like a new era for labor in America. The success of the Amazon Labor Union drive in Staten Island sent shock waves through the labor movement. The organizers overcame massive obstacles and opposition from the company to win their independent union.

Fueled by the brutal working conditions during the pandemic, the Starbucks unionization wave has swept the country with remarkable speed. 278 stores representing over 6,500 workers are in Starbucks Workers United. It’s not just Starbucks workers who are seeking to unionize: there are drives at Trader Joe’s, Chipotle, Apple Stores, Google, and more. There’s been an uptick in strikes and union organizing: in 2022, there were 1,249 union elections, up almost 50 percent from 2021, and workers won 72 percent of those elections. UPS might strike this summer, and the United Auto Workers has elected a new, combative president.

However, despite these major developments and militant mood, labor in the US is not in good shape from a historical perspective. The unionization rate was 10.1 percent in 2022, which was actually down from 10.3 percent in 2021, and well lower than in the 1980s when it was over 20 percent. Also, the wave of union victories doesn’t mean these workers are actually getting contracts: for example, the Starbucks union has yet to get a contract for their workers and hasn’t been as combative as necessary to force Starbucks to make concessions.

Caveats aside, there’s been a real upsurge in organizing, strike action, and public support for unions coming out of the pandemic. But this insurgent labor movement needs to be nourished and given a fighting strategy. It is a chance to start to revive the labor movement, and DSA can play an active role in that process – but how?

Socialists should promote in their unions and unionizing efforts the essence of Kim Moody’s rank-and-file strategy, which includes reckoning with business unionism and labor liberalism. The failed strategies of too many labor leaders of either cosying up with bosses or turning our unions into Democratic Party-aligned NGOs has failed, discredited labor, and is a millstone around our neck in new unionizing efforts.

Socialists want to build unions and a lively labor movement with all workers without pre-condition, including those with different views. However, socialists offer a unique contribution that is not limited by adjusting the union’s effort to what capitalism or an individual boss believes is possible. Our vision of an economy run democratically, not by and for billionaires, is an empowering tool for labor. Organizing within the labor movement – including in reform caucuses – to steer the political orientation of our unions against business unionism and labor liberalism can help show a new layer of combative workers a way forward. Socialists in the labor movement must consistently argue against the bureaucratic, corrupt approach that dominates labor and fight for union democracy and political independence of the workers’ movement.